Massive Leadership Changes Expected in PNP and JLP after 2016 General Elections
With the general election of 2016 looming large, political pundits from across the political landscape are conducting polls and crunching the numbers. My thoughts and reflections go beyond those election numbers to the effects those numbers will have on the political leadership in both parties.
The aftermath of the elections will be interesting, intriguing and possibly see for the first time in our political history, we may see a leadership change in both parties occur just about the same time. This is dependent on the results, whether it is a win or a loss for either political party.
For careful analysis this article will put both leaders and their parties in perspective and the effects the election results will have on their continued leadership.With the distinct possibility of leadership changes at all levels in the parties, this article will also look at the contenders for the leadership positions and how they might be elevated to the positions.
WIN/LOSS FOR PORTIA AND THE PNP
In the eyes of the public, Portia and the PNP are clear favorites to win the election, but there can always a slip between the cup and lip. Should the PNP win , Portia will still continue on as Prime Minister but just about mid-term will start making preparation for her grand exit from leadership and representational politics.
The positioning and re-positioning of the major contenders for leadership will commence in earnest and many a pundits will be reading beyond the headlines as to how she names her cabinet to see if there is any hint as to where her support for her successor lies. Some signs or hint to look for that she is ready to pass on the baton, will be grand announcements in tangible and sustainable social benefits to pensioners, the poor and marginalized youth.
A loss for the party will only hasten her departure and we can expect her resignation the moment she concedes defeat. A win or defeat for the party will have different connotations and processes as to how the new leadership will be configured and advanced.
LEADING CONTENDERS FOR THE PNP’S LEADERSHIP
His ascension to the throne will be clear-cut if the PNP wins , as the election success could be seen in the way he navigated the country through the difficult economic waters. He has the backing of the influential old guards but not necessarily “god father” PJ Patterson, former Prime Minister.
Should the PNP lose, it will mark an end to his political career and ambition, as the election loss will be placed squarely at his feet and in his lap because of how they would have perceived his handling of the IMF economic model. Should Peter be elected as the next leader i am expecting his son Mickail to assume a pivotal role in leadership and government as Peter prepares him as the “anointed one ”
Always considered as the heir apparent but will have a difficult path to the throne if the PNP wins, as within the PNP, Phillips carries more clout and has a wider constituency of support. There are high hopes for him however, as it is an open secret that he has strong backing from Portia and PJ.
Angella Brown- Burke
Dangerous and dark horse whether the PNP wins or loses. Biding her time well and smartly, being conditioned by the willy Gen Sec and husband Paul Burke. She is not tainted by government policies and has strong backing at the grass-roots levels in the party. I am expecting her to replace Portia in her constituency. Already a vice president, I will not rule her out.
Already a rising star in the party. From good PNP stock. He has every chance like everyone else, especially if the PNP loses..
Being the portfolio minister for crime makes it difficult for him. Jamaicans have never been warm to security ministers.
Nathalee Neita- Headley
Another rising star in the PNP. Well liked and handling her portfolio well. If it is not this time then surely next time
Western Jamaica’s great hope. Decent gentleman but will remain a vice president.
SHOULD THE JLP AND HOLNESS WIN/LOSE
A win for the JLP will cement Holness’s leadership for the next 20 years at least. What we will see however is an ‘exclusive” club around him as leader both in government and party leadership .
If Holness performs the great escape acts and takes the party to victory, expect to see his loyalist such as Floyd Green, DR Dunn, Cuthbert, Fayvel Williams, Alexander Williams being given cabinet posts.
The real conundrum and bangarang will unfold if the party loses and I am expecting Holness to resign the same time he concedes the election. I dont expect him to hang on neither do the delegates of the party.
CONTENDERS FOR LEADERSHIP SHOULD THE JLP LOSE
Might have hopped on to the bus too early and lost his balance. Party insiders will want to blame his leadership challenge on the loss and this may dissipate his chances . Still in with a shot but age not in his favor. His political fate is not only in his own hands, but on what will happen to the other aspirants in the general election
All will depend on how he navigates the difficult run off in West Central St Catherine. If he wins the run off and goes on to win the election , then he will be on a clear path to leadership. In this case, it would not be if but when!!..so his political future depends on the roll of the dice in West Central. It can make him or break him.
A once shining star in the party that has now become obscure by political meteor dust. One of the few 100 % Labourite left in leadership…Grassroot politician will have a good look in on leadership if he wins his seat in a JLP election loss.. with his strength on the ground, he can easily beat a Shaw or a Tufton for the crown.
The 100% Labourite from good stock. A fast rising star, she has the connection to go all the way to top. I expect her to replace Chuck in his constituency. Very serious contender if she throws her hat into the ring. May very well be the surprise candidate.
Could be the 1967 Shearer in all of this. Bright articulate astute organizer, building a political fortress in the JLP area 1 and 2. If he tosses his hat in the ring he may very well win or decides who wins.
The political landscape can only change for the better after General Elections 2016. Then, we will see the electorate excited to participate in the electorate process and excited about their leaders. In the realm of all possibilities it all rests in who wins and who loses and it can only be for the better.
The time can be equally as interesting when we may see the departure of two political leaders and some relevant or irrelevant “relic” in parliament namely, Pickersgill, Omar Davies, Michael Peart, Pearnel Charles , Mike Henry and JC Huchinson. After 2016, all things are politically possible.